Bold Predictions: Panthers 27 - Broncos 20
Super Bowl MVP: Luke Kuechly, Middle Linebacker, Carolina Panthers
- According to espn.com, this Super Bowl matchup will mark the seventh time where the NFL's number one scoring offense faces the NFL's best total defense. In six of seven matchups, the defense has won. When the defensive team won the game, five of those six contests resulted lopsided games. Denver has the NFL's best total defense, but can the keep pace with the versatile Cam Newton. When playing Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers, containing Cam Newton and winning the battle at the line of scrimmage are two top priorities. Acording to Pro Football Reference, Newton ran for 632 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns this season and revolves his game around the read option. Denver runs a base 3-4 defense and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips does a good job at containing running quarterbacks. Outside linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware faced one team that uses the read option (Kansas City Chiefs), but allowed more than 100 yards rushing on both occassions. In order to contain Cam Newton, Miller and Ware need to win the battle off the edge. Rather it's a swim, spin, or bull rush move, hurrying Cam Newton throws freezes Carolina's offense. Newton ran more than half of his rushing yards from the pistol and is big enough to run in between the tackles and elusive enough to win the edge. QB Contain, QB Spy, and zone blitzes are plays to stop a running quarterback. (Newton: 9 Att, 50 yards, 1 TD/237 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT )(Miller: 3 Tackles, 1.5 Sacks)(Ware: 5 QB Pressures, 1 Sack, 2 Tackles for Loss, 4 Tackles)
- Drops have been a killer for Ted Ginn Jr. and Demariuys Thomas this season. According to sportingcharts.com, Ginn Jr. (10) and Thomas (9) rank top five in dropped passes this season. Most dropped passes have come from the go route, which means both Manning and Newton love to attack the seams of the defense. If Ginn Jr. can use his blazing speed against Harris Jr. and Talib, he cannot drop it. Harris Jr. and Talib love to bump and run and be physical at the line of scrimmage. As with Ginn Jr, Thomas has had consistent drop issues with Peyton and faces a great corner in Josh Norman. Norman also plays bigger than his listed height and can control the game at any moment. Dropping key passes on the big stage sometimes throws a players game off rythem. The Fly, Go, Post, Stutter Post, Slant N Go, and Fade routes are going to be tested with both teams talented corners. (Thomas: 4 Rec 34 yards 0 TD, 1 Drop) (Ginn Jr.: 3 Rec 59 yards, 2 drops)(Harris Jr.: 3 Tackles)(Roby: 2 Tackles, 1 INT)(Norman: 4 Tackles, 2 Passes Defended)
- Denver's inside linebackers and safties face another tough tight end test in Greg Olson. Olson is not as physical as Rob Gronkowski, but exhibits similar traits. He's a box out tight end and is a receiving threat in the middle of the field. Last week, Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan had difficulties guarding Gronk, who recorded 8 Rec, 145 yards, and a TD. Greg Olson has caught at least 6 passes for 70 yards in each playoff contest, and is bound to get involved early and often. Look for Olson to be split wide or slotted against Marshall/Nickel Corner with zone coverage. Olson is great at reading defenses, but Marshall and Trevathan are just as stingy at the line. Olson is also one of the worst blocking tight ends in the NFL, which helps Miller/Ware/Barrett/Wolfe/Jackson to provide pressure. (Olson: 6 Rec 71 yards 1 TD)(Marshall: 7 Tackles, Tackle for Loss)
- With the loss of Charles Tillman, look for Peyton Manning to test the vulnerbable Robert McClain. McClain did a solid job against the Cardinals speedy recievers, but showed struggles in coverage, even if the pass was overthrown. Look for Manning to use slants, comebacks, crosses, motion posts, screens, and fly routes with wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. A lot of defenses tend to underestimate how fast Emmanuel Sanders is, but McClain could end up being a Super Bowl hero, However, Tre Boston plays on the same side as McClain and is not as strong of a pass defender as Kurt Coleman. If Sanders starts to heat up, look for Norman to prance behind him. (Sanders: 8 Rec, 101 yards, 0 TD)(Robert McClain: 6 Tackles, 1 Pass Defended)(Boston: 2 Tackles, 1 Sack)
- Peyton Manning's opponent in the Super Bowl compares similary to the last team he played, the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. Each team had a rising, young quarterback, a good defense, a breakout cornerback, an underrated receiving core, a bulky running back, and a solid interior offensive line. If Manning struggles as poorly as his last Super Bowl performance, the game could get out of hand. Manning is familiar with the big game and might even play conservative with his backfield duo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, during the first part of the game. Sustaining long drives is something that Manning does well. Keeping Cam off the field as much as possible gives Denver's defense rest to pressure Newton. Peyton should also use play action in order to keep Carolina's defense off balance. Manning is also an audible machine and an expert at reading defenses too. Key on Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, who has been a quarterback's nightmare in this year's playoffs. Kuechly is an excellent run defender and has tremendous recovery speed too. (Manning: 231 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT/sacked 3 times) (Hillman: 15 Att, 36 yards/Anderson: 11 Att, 61 yards)(Kuechly: 9 Tackles, 1 INT)
- According to CBS Sports, Carolina Panthers Head Coach Ron Rivera played Peyton Manning in Super Bowl 41, as a member of the Chicago Bears Defensive Coordinator. Manning beat Rivera and the Chicago Bears 29-17 and was named Super Bowl 41 MVP.
- The ground game is the glue to the Carolina Panthers offense and running back Jonathan Stewart gets the bulk of the carries. According to espn.com, Stewart's best opportunity to break one open is when Newton hands him the ball to the left, in singleback formations, with three recievers, and when someone is motioned to the right. Wade Phillips has watched a lot of tape and knows the advantages and disadvantages of running to the left. In order to prevent Stewart from breaking one open, Phillips will need to use a 46 defense or shift his defensive line to the right and linebackers to the left. When doing a counter or strech to the left, the right guard pulls and that allows free stuffing space for defensive lineman. Look for those types of formations in Stewart's successful formations.Stewart also loves to run up the a and b gaps and is a good cutback runner when he has just enough room. Broncos linebackers need to manuever quick and need Sylvester Williams and company to win the line of scrimmage. (Stewart: 23 Att, 75 yards, 0 TD)
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line is a young and talented group. The have been consistent throughout this season and feature a phenominal guard tandem of Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner. The Denver Broncos own two very underrated defensive lineman in Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe. Both have benefited from the arrival of Phillips and continue to pave paths for blizting Broncos. The matchup at the line of scrimmage between these two lines is going to be very entertaining.
- In last week's victory over the Patriots, tight end Owen Daniels caught both of Manning's touchdown passes and sometimes known as his security blanket. When Denver is victorious, Daniels is a huge part of the offense. However, when Daniels is mirrored in Denver's game plan, Denver usually falters. Look for Daniels to get open looks. Look for him to be slotted in the backfield sometimes when Manning goes bootleg. He has caught 28 out of 46 passes when catching a pass inside a ten yard radius. Kubiak loves using two tight end sets and will usually utilize Daniels in formations that include two tight ends. Keep an eye on Thomas Davis, who will look to punish the veteran. Davis is a converted saftey to linebacker like Arizona's Deone Buchanon and has familiarity with several coverage schemes too. (Daniels: 7 Rec 57 yards 0 TD)(Davis: 11 Tackles, 3 Tackles for Loss, 1 FF)
two teams? more like two teams
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