Bold Prediction: Patriots 27 - Broncos 24
- In the Patriots last trip to Denver, they were without wide receiver Julian Edelman. The return of Edelman was a huge boost for Brady last week, as he racked up 100 yards in their victory over Kansas City. When Edelman was sidelined, New England's third down conversion rate dropped from 50 to 31 percent, they averaged eleven fewer points per game, and their record was 3-4. The presence of Edelman is huge for New England's offense because he so versatile. He can line up anywhere on the field and produce at a consistent rate. Edelman is at his best when the Patriots line up in shotgun. His 56 of 61 catches six of his seven touchdown receptions have came from the gun. In these type of situations, Edelman will either be positioned in the slot or positioned where the opposing teams second cornerback is. Look for Broncos Pro Bowl corner Chris Harris JR (yielded the fewest yards per coverage snap in the slot at 0.44) to follow him all day long when New England is in the gun. (Edleman: 7 Rec 71 yards 0 TD)
- The New England Patriots were decimated with injuries on the offensive line this season. They struggle in pass protection, but they benefit from Tom Brady's 2.21 seconds release time. Brady is arguably the best scanning quarterback in the NFL. This means that Brady is able to place the football where only his receivers can posses it. When he feels heavy pressure coming, Brady knows where his receiver will be, while keeping an eye on roaming defenders. Just when a defensive player obliterates Brady, he hits his receiver for a solid gain. Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is well aware of Brady's abilities and has the talent to keep Brady under duress. Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller is a very talented pass rusher and is Pro Football Focus fourth best edge rusher. The Patriots lack depth on the interior and the Denver Broncos have one of the strongest three-technique groups in the NFL. Players such as Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and Sylvester Williams will plug the A and B gaps, which creates openings for blitzing Broncos. In order to pressure Brady, you will need your interior to control the line of scrimmage. (Broncos: 4 Sacks)
- Denver Broncos wide receiver Demariuys Thomas has had the bad case of butter fingers recently. Thomas dropped two crucial passes in last week's victory over the Steelers. He faces a talented cornerback Malcolm Butler, who has a knack of shutting down opponents number one receivers. Butler held Thomas to one reception for thirty-six yards in their last showdown. Thomas will need to limit dropped passes and will need to use his underrated speed and route running to get the best of Butler. Butler is more of a contain quarterback and usually does not give up the big play. He has the speed to catch up with defenders, but Thomas can use his size as an advantage. The Patriots safties are tough to pick a part and it's up to Manning and Kubiak to create seperation for Thomas and Co. I believe Thomas will perform better, but will still be limited. He loves to run the post route and likes to be involved in the screen game. New England ran mostly Cover 3 when defending Thomas, so Denver will need to use fly and option routes to create some open space for Thomas. (Thomas: 4 Rec 62 yards 0 TD)
- The Denver Broncos also struggle at pass protection and need their young offensive tackles to create a comfortable pocket for the aging Manning. The Patriots secret weapon is defensive end Chandler Jones. Jones is a nightmare for all opposing quarterbacks and ranks top five in QB hurries. If Chandler Jones can fly past Peyton's blindside blockers, the Patriots are going to create more turnovers. Even though Denver do not have the best blocking tight ends or running backs in the NFL, they will need to key in on Jones. Look for Peyton to slide the protection to the right and use play action from the gun in order to evade immediate pressure. (Pats: 4 Sacks)
- The Denver Broncos feature the best inside linebacking duo in the NFL. Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevethan are two of the top ten inside linebackers in the NFL. Just like the last matchup, both linebackers have to punish physical tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk had previously eclipsed the century mark when these two teams last met. Marshall says that Gronk pushes off 98% of the time, but in relality, Gronk is a freak athlete. His combination of size and speed make him a matchup nightmare. He dominates nearly every facet of the game, except his inconsistent blocking. The Denver safties and linebackers cannot let up against Gronk and punish him with authority, They need to play cover three, bring safties and linebackers up for press coverage, and always have him double teamed. (Gronk: 6/77 yards/1 TD)
- Two players that NFL fans overlook is Patriots nickel corner Logan Ryan and saftey Duron Harmon. Ryan has played like a top twenty corner this season and Pro Football Focus ranks him as the eleventh best corner in the NFL. Harmon is top thirty ranked saftey and plays in a reserve, but key role for the Matt Patricia's defense. Ryan has held quarterbacks to a mere 69.1 passer rating and uses his durability and coverage skills too his advantage. Harmon is a good cover saftey that occasionally will struggle against the run. These two players are the x-factor for the Patriots defense, but do not draw too much attention. Key on these two individuals during the game
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